Fact Check: CO2 Over the Lifetime, EV vs Petrol Car

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Fact check: CO2 over the lifetime, electric car vs petrol car
Everything that matters is an input below. Sources are named next to the values, the rest are assumptions. Cross-check at the end: the ICCT 2025 study finds about 63 g CO2e/km for an EV against 235 g CO2e/km for a petrol car over the lifetime in the EU (https://theicct.org/publication/electric-cars-life-cycle-analysis-emissions-europe-jul25/).
Use
lifetimeDistance = 200000 km Production (car plus battery), in kg CO2
Assumption for a mid-size car without battery. The ICCT finds EV production emissions about 40 % higher.
iceProduction = 6500 kg
batterySize = 60 kWh Cell production today: about 58 to 92 kg CO2e per kWh (Fraunhofer FFB, Journal of Industrial Ecology 2025, https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/inecol/v29y2025i1p113-128.html). Other studies range from about 40 to 150.
batteryFootprint = 70 kg / kWh
evBodyProduction = 6500 kg
evProduction = evBodyProduction + batterySize * batteryFootprint Petrol car use
iceConsumption = 7 l / (100 km) to l / km Burning one liter of petrol emits about 2.3 kg CO2, fuel production and transport adds some 2.32 kg CO2 per liter of petrol (Swiss FOEN emission factor table, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/NlGIhzJ8OW0t/CO2_Emissionsfaktoren_THG_Inventar.pdf)
petrolEmission = 2.32 kg / l Assumption: extra emissions for producing and delivering the fuel. Check, estimates differ.
petrolUpstream = 20 %
iceUse = lifetimeDistance * iceConsumption * petrolEmission * (1 + petrolUpstream) to kg Electric car use
evConsumption = 17 kWh / (100 km) to kWh / km German electricity mix: 344 g CO2 per kWh in 2025 (estimate), 353 g in 2024 (Umweltbundesamt) https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/co2-emissionen-pro-kilowattstunde-strom-2025-nur Note: the grid gets cleaner every year, the ICCT study assumes a falling value over the car's life.
gridIntensity = 344 g / kWh
chargingLoss = 10 %
evUse = lifetimeDistance * evConsumption * (1 + chargingLoss) * gridIntensity to kg Totals
iceTotal = iceProduction + iceUse
evTotal = evProduction + evUse
difference = iceTotal - evTotal
evAdvantage = difference / iceTotal Per km, to compare with the ICCT values (235 g/km petrol, 63 g/km EV). The EV result here is higher because this sheet uses today's grid for all years and a 200000 km life, ICCT projects a cleaner grid up to 2044.
iceTotalPerKm = iceTotal / lifetimeDistance to g / km
evTotalPerKm = evTotal / lifetimeDistance to g / km Break-even distance: where the EV catches up after its larger production footprint
iceGramsPerKm = iceConsumption * petrolEmission * (1 + petrolUpstream) to g / km
evGramsPerKm = evConsumption * (1 + chargingLoss) * gridIntensity to g / km
breakEvenDistance = (evProduction - iceProduction) / (iceGramsPerKm - evGramsPerKm) to km What if the grid were cleaner? (try 100 g / kWh for mostly renewable power)
cleanGrid = 100 g / kWh
evUseClean = lifetimeDistance * evConsumption * (1 + chargingLoss) * cleanGrid to kg
evTotalClean = evProduction + evUseClean