Fact Check: CO2 Over the Lifetime, EV vs Petrol Car

Calculations

{"type":"doc","attrs":{"background":{"dim":33,"url":"https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1470071459604-3b5ec3a7fe05?q=80&w=2474&auto=format&fit=crop&ixlib=rb-4.1.0&ixid=NHwxMjA3fDA%3D"}},"content":[{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":1},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Fact check: CO2 over the lifetime, electric car vs petrol car"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Everything that matters is an input below. Sources are named next to the values, the rest are assumptions. Cross-check at the end: the ICCT 2025 study finds about 63 g CO2e/km for an EV against 235 g CO2e/km for a petrol car over the lifetime in the EU (https://theicct.org/publication/electric-cars-life-cycle-analysis-emissions-europe-jul25/)."}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Use"}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"lifetimeDistance = 200000 km"}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Production (car plus battery), in kg CO2"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Assumption for a mid-size car without battery. The ICCT finds EV production emissions about 40 % higher."}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"iceProduction = 6500 kg\nbatterySize = 60 kWh"}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Cell production today: about 58 to 92 kg CO2e per kWh (Fraunhofer FFB, Journal of Industrial Ecology 2025, https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/inecol/v29y2025i1p113-128.html). Other studies range from about 40 to 150."}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"batteryFootprint = 70 kg / kWh\nevBodyProduction = 6500 kg\nevProduction = evBodyProduction + batterySize * batteryFootprint"}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Petrol car use"}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"iceConsumption = 7 l / (100 km) to l / km"}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Burning one liter of petrol emits about 2.3 kg CO2, fuel production and transport adds some 2.32 kg CO2 per liter of petrol (Swiss FOEN emission factor table, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/NlGIhzJ8OW0t/CO2_Emissionsfaktoren_THG_Inventar.pdf)"}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"petrolEmission = 2.32 kg / l"}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Assumption: extra emissions for producing and delivering the fuel. Check, estimates differ."}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"petrolUpstream = 20 %\niceUse = lifetimeDistance * iceConsumption * petrolEmission * (1 + petrolUpstream) to kg"}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Electric car use"}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"evConsumption = 17 kWh / (100 km) to kWh / km"}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"German electricity mix: 344 g CO2 per kWh in 2025 (estimate), 353 g in 2024 (Umweltbundesamt) https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/co2-emissionen-pro-kilowattstunde-strom-2025-nur Note: the grid gets cleaner every year, the ICCT study assumes a falling value over the car's life."}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"gridIntensity = 344 g / kWh\nchargingLoss = 10 %\nevUse = lifetimeDistance * evConsumption * (1 + chargingLoss) * gridIntensity to kg"}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Totals"}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"iceTotal = iceProduction + iceUse\nevTotal = evProduction + evUse\ndifference = iceTotal - evTotal\nevAdvantage = difference / iceTotal"}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Per km, to compare with the ICCT values (235 g/km petrol, 63 g/km EV). The EV result here is higher because this sheet uses today's grid for all years and a 200000 km life, ICCT projects a cleaner grid up to 2044."}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"iceTotalPerKm = iceTotal / lifetimeDistance to g / km\nevTotalPerKm = evTotal / lifetimeDistance to g / km"}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Break-even distance: where the EV catches up after its larger production footprint"}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"iceGramsPerKm = iceConsumption * petrolEmission * (1 + petrolUpstream) to g / km\nevGramsPerKm = evConsumption * (1 + chargingLoss) * gridIntensity to g / km\nbreakEvenDistance = (evProduction - iceProduction) / (iceGramsPerKm - evGramsPerKm) to km"}},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"What if the grid were cleaner? (try 100 g / kWh for mostly renewable power)"}]},{"type":"numbox","attrs":{"code":"cleanGrid = 100 g / kWh\nevUseClean = lifetimeDistance * evConsumption * (1 + chargingLoss) * cleanGrid to kg\nevTotalClean = evProduction + evUseClean"}},{"type":"paragraph"}]}